Self-correcting Information Cascades
نویسندگان
چکیده
We report experimental results from long sequences of decisions in environments that are theoretically prone to severe information cascades. Observed behavior is much different—information cascades are ephemeral. We study the implications of a model based on quantal response equilibrium, in which the observed cascade formation/collapse/formation cycles arise as equilibrium phenomena. Consecutive cascades may reverse states and usually such a reversal is selfcorrecting: the cascade switches to the correct state. We extend the model to allow for base rate neglect and find strong evidence for over-weighting of private information. The estimated belief trajectories indicate fast and efficient learning dynamics. JEL classification numbers : C92, D82, D83
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